Weekend Show – Rick Bensignor and Nick Hodge – A Focus On Commodities And Which Ones Have The Best Upside
Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show! On this Weekend Show we feature a couple generalist investors and newsletter writers to get a handle on where money is rotating as markets have started to show some weakness. We get insights on the key sectors and data that is driving the markets with a focus on a wide range of commodity sectors.
Please keep in touch with us through email. Our email addresses are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Rick Bensignor, President of Bensignor Investment Strategies and Editor of a couple very good retail focused investment letters kicks off the show by sharing his outlook for markets and commodities. We also discuss how Rick is able to consistently beat the market.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Nick Hodge, Co-Owner of Digest Publishing and Editor of Foundational Profits and Fonder of Hodge Family Office wraps up the show with a focus on commodities. We start with a quick overview of the macro economic environment. We then move to the energy sector with oil, natural gas and uranium. We also discuss copper and precious metals.
A quick Update on The Real Estate Market in Canada:
In Canada we now have infinity mortgages, they stretch far beyond 50 years. They will help avoid defaults today but what about when the defaults come.
Toronto’s housing market is so expensive families earning $100,000 per year are now eligible for Habitat for Humanity. DT
Heck….. after 50 yrs… they can claim a JUBILEE……….. lol………..
Sad state of affairs…….. most will never complete their mortgage obligation….
Hi Jerry:
I posted this the other day, if you haven’t you should read what John Rubino say’s about Martin Armstrong and his predictions. Most people don’t see this slant, but it is well worth the 5-minute read. DT
https://rubino.substack.com/p/people-we-should-know-martin-armstrong
Thank you…I take that article to heart…It says do not short equities…At least yet……I still believe a ww111 situation is not survivable for the average peeps ….https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDLS12_a-fk
If you remove currency from the equation shorting makes more sense. Ratio charts like the AG:NVDA chart I posted yesterday are overlooked by most which is a mistake. If NVDA does somehow manage to regroup here and continue higher despite the technicals and bubbly valuation it is unlikely to continue higher against silver stocks in general so shorting it and buying silver stocks still looks appealing and is getting more appealing by the day.
AG:NVDA just had its best weekly close in 3 months:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG%3ANVDA&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p05449616219&a=1479133226
SILJ:NVDA just put in its first weekly close above its weekly KAMA since early January. The tide is turning for both sectors.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ%3ANVDA&p=W&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p02885770989&a=1479134781
Lets see what this egomaniac does in a bear market. What a bore!
Rick was simply highlighting how he was able to handsomely beat the S&P index over the last 3 years, and providing backstory of his 40 years in the investing industry. He has produced measurable results to be proud of, as so very few investors are able to regularly beat the indexes.
He could continue his out1performance by shorting the 4/11 he doesn’t like.
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events
Peter Boockvar – August 11, 2023
https://peterboockvar.substack.com/p/succinct-summation-of-the-weeks-events-65b
The Crucial Message For Investors From The Capital Cycle
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report (08/12/2023)
China facing bigger debt bust than Evergrande in just under 30 days. DT
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-facing-bigger-debt-crisis-evergrande-under-30-days
inflation/depression….https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/global-inflationary-depression-very-possible
all the progress of bringing the masses out of poverty…reversed?…in another decade
Gold Futures Remain in Uptrend with an Expected Fed Pause
David Erfle – The Junior Mining Junky – Friday August 11th, 2023
“The gold market did not see much of a reaction after CPI inflation cooled slightly more than expected on Thursday, followed by a mildly hotter-than-expected PPI inflation report this morning. U.S. CPI annual inflation rose 3.2%, up from 3% in June, while PPI inflation for July came in at up 0.3% from June.”
“Thursday’s July CPI report was slightly tamer than expected, which solidified notions the Federal Reserve will stand pat on raising interest rates at its September FOMC meeting. Traders of futures tied to the Fed’s policy rate now see less than a 10% chance that the U.S. central bank will increase its benchmark overnight interest rate from its current 5.25%-5.50% range at a Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.”
“They had seen about a 14% chance of a rate hike next month before the tamer than expected July CPI report this week. Traders are now pricing in about a 28% chance of a rate hike by November, down from more than 30% before the release of the CPI report, with higher rates by December seen as even less likely. The Fed’s first rate cut is priced into the futures contracts by March of 2024.”
https://mailchi.mp/330c2b0a58f3/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1602081
The popular view amongst the newsletter writers is that The Fed is in control of the interest hikes they are not anymore. DT
All the interest rate hikes of the past 16 months have done nothing but shake dumb money out of gold. Has anyone noticed that gold at the moment is up about 20% since last September despite 7 more hikes that took the Fed Funds Rate from 3% to 5.5%?
Where oh where is that “erudite” Joe to explain such action? Lol
If the metals take another dip tomorrow but the miners don’t join in it will be another positive sign that upside will soon resume.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p81309314101&a=1449196776
32 percent of GDX stocks are above their 200 day EMA which is up significantly from the sub-18 percent reached the previous week. As you can see the weekly closing lows as well as absolute lows came very close to the lows reached in February and March:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21GT200GDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04677993321&a=1479443834
Here’s the Golden Cross Gold Miners Index with GDX added. Speed line support has held so far…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21GT200GDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04677993321&a=1479443834
After almost 2 weeks of failing the USD did finally close above its 150 day MA but I am much more interested in its behavior around 103.1 and after that its falling 200 day MA.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p42706037040&a=1294481280
Dr. Copper is at a critical juncture…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82383311595&a=1479455401
Dr Copper needs to take 2 aspirins and call us in the morning.
Perhaps silver just needed to backtest its recent weekly Golden Cross…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90014628362&a=1477992009
Buy the dip? I don’t think so!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p57797959303&a=1438898348
Took almost 4 hours to work my account red. Another successful Monday (so far) for the bots. Humans lose again. Better go to the stables and clean the Master’s Horse.
Thanks for the show!